Variable Weights
Flip any switch off to exclude that variable from every probability instantly. Variables marked "(last 90 days)" are meant to be scored using your most recent 60 days of data, not full-season numbers — recent form predicts better than stale season averages. "Proven" variables tested positive against real league data; "Your Signature" variables are yours to include or exclude.
| Variable | Category | On/Off | Weight |
|---|
Daily MLB Game Slate
Choose a date and load every MLB matchup automatically in scheduled-time order. The public MLB feed supplies games, times and probable pitchers; enter or update each sportsbook moneyline beside the corresponding team. The dashboard then compares both sides using your active model weights.
Matchup Predictor
Every selected game shows the model probability, market-implied probability, probability gap and a direct Moneyline decision: BET, LEAN or PASS. A strong team probability is not automatically a bet—the price must leave enough edge.
Live Player Performance Probabilities
Imports the MLB schedule, probable pitchers, confirmed batting order when available, and recent player performance. Probabilities are estimates—not guarantees—and update when you reload the game data.
Hitters
Expected plate appearances are adjusted by batting-order position. Health 100 means no adjustment; 80 reduces expected opportunity/rates by 20%. “2+ TB” uses a Poisson approximation from recent total-base production.
Starting Pitchers
Projected strikeouts use recent strikeout rate, estimated batters faced, opponent contact adjustment and health modifier. Threshold probabilities use a Poisson approximation.
Match Totals & Line Comparison
Uses the imported lineup, recent form, batting order, probable pitchers, health modifiers and recent head-to-head information. Enter sportsbook lines to compare model probabilities and projected edge. “Uniform” signals are supported by broader form; “Recent” signals are short-window or matchup-specific.
Uniform vs Recent Signals
Player Prop Over/Under Board
Choose a market and line for each player. The model calculates Over and Under probability from the current imported projection.
Team & First-Five Projection
First 5 Innings Strikeout & Score Lab
Refreshes the selected game feed, lineup, probable starters, player handedness and available pitch-level events. Pregame pitch mix uses recent imported information when available; live-game pitch mix updates from pitches already thrown.
Lineup vs Starter Handedness
Hover over any player name for recent rate stats, batting-order opportunity, handedness and model probabilities.
Starting Pitcher Strikeout Paths
Pitch Mix & Last Home Run Matchup
Compares pitches observed in the selected game feed with each hitter’s most recently located home-run event. Before first pitch, use the Savant links to review the starter’s established arsenal.
Probability Explorer
Rank every available game, team, pitcher and player probability. Filter by market or team, then sort highest-to-lowest or lowest-to-highest.
Live Sportsbook Market Lab
Connect your own odds-feed API key or import odds manually. Sport Mode compares the offered price with the model probability and simulates payout/expected value. No model can guarantee profit.
Your Bet Log
Log your actual bets here (a few are pre-loaded from your screenshots). This tab tracks what's really working — broken down by stake size and by parlay length — so the model reflects your own results, not just theory.
The scanner cleans and enlarges each screenshot, runs multiple OCR passes, detects the sportsbook and markets, and builds editable structured legs. Images stay in this browser.
Overall Performance
By Stake Size
| Bucket | Bets | Win % | Net | ROI |
|---|
By Parlay Length
| Bucket | Bets | Win % | Net | ROI |
|---|
Model Calibration
Tracks whether stated probabilities are matching real outcomes. A well-calibrated 70% group should win near 70% over a large sample.
Takeaway
Parlay Calculator
Select legs manually, or let the model build diversified 3-, 5-, 9- and 12-leg parlays from the current slate, imported player projections and totals. Fair payout is estimated from model probabilities; enter the sportsbook price before placing any wager.
Automatic 3 / 5 / 9 / 12-Leg Builder
Loads the entire selected day, including every matchup and available player lineup, then ranks high-probability legs while limiting duplicate exposure.
Cross-Sport 12-Leg Optimal Builder
Combines the strongest eligible MLB and NFL selections currently loaded in this browser. It uses only the top non-conflicting build produced by the active algorithms and minimum-probability settings.
90%+ High-Return Single-Line Watch
Separates any modeled event at 90% or higher when an entered sportsbook price offers a positive return. These are rare; missing book odds are clearly marked and never invented.